In 2021, the bodies of 225 migrants attempting to reach the U.S. were recovered from the Arizona desert. This year, 126 bodies have already been found. A third of these deaths are due to environmental exposures — like heat. For the first time, a team of researchers has measured how exactly climate change will exacerbate migrant deaths along the border. Their findings should sound an alarm:
The authors used six climate models to compare the study area’s summertime temperature in 2020 with what’s projected there in 2050 under a middle-of-the-road climate scenario where governments have taken some mitigation measures but not nearly as much as they should.
The researchers had to, then, feed all this data into another model that measures the cost of environmental changes on whatever species is inputted. They were looking at temperature, sure, but also wind speed, humidity, and cloud cover. Every species has its factors that influence the model, too: metabolism, skin properties, sweat rates. For humans, even the clothing someone wears must be included in the model. It also considers geography, such as terrain slope.
Ryan Long, a senior study author and associate professor of wildlife science at the University of Idaho, has used this model to explore how climate change affects elk. He’s seen a classmate use it similarly for grizzly bears. This was his first time, however, using it for humans. In fact, this was the first time any researcher used the biological model on their own species.
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